House prices continue moderate growth: up by 2.8% in the second quarter compared with 2023

We have published this Gesvalt study, performed by the company’s Research Department, using our own data. The results reflect an increase in house prices of 2.8% compared to the same period last year.

The upward trend continues for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, dating back to the first quarter of 2021. That said, it has stabilised at a moderate growth rate of less than 3%, following increases of 2.1% in the final period of 2023 and 2% between January and March of this year. Our experts point out that this stabilising of prices is set to become the trend for the housing sector in the rest of 2024, as was the case throughout 2023. However, they are also cautious about the impact of lower interest rates in reactivating demand and, therefore, on price increases.

Price have also risen by 2.9% compared to the previous quarter, showing a slight reactivation, with a higher growth rate than in recent periods, where it remained below 2% across the board. This indicator may point to a reactivation of the purchase and sale market, driven by a downward trend in the Euribor, which fell by 0.182 points in May compared to the same period last year.

Thus, the average house price has stood at €1,612/m2, some 31.9% below the all-time high, recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. This figure also means that an average property with a floor area of 90m², which would have been worth €141,018 last year, would now cost €145,080 to purchase.

For the fourth consecutive quarter, the increase in house prices has extended across all territories, showing similar trends to previous quarters. The island territories again showed the highest price increases — the Balearic Islands are the territory with the highest house prices in the country, at  €2,881/m2, ahead of the Community of Madrid, at €2,600/m2, and the Basque Country, at €2,418/m2, as the only regions to exceed €2,000/m2. At the other end of the table, the only autonomous communities not reaching average per square metre prices of more than €1,000 are Extremadura, at €891 per square metre, and Castilla La Mancha, at €924 per square metre.

Nine autonomous communities top 4%, while five sit below 1.5%.

This quarter has seen a rise in the territorial differences in house price growth. In this period, the group of regions where prices have risen by more than 4% has increased, with the Canary Islands once again showing the highest increase — a rise of 11.9%, up to €1,758/m2. They are followed by the Balearic Islands, where there has been a 7.7% increase. Next comes the Valencian Community, with an increase of 6.9%, followed by Cantabria, with an increase of 6%, Murcia, with an increase of 5.9% and Andalusia, with an increase of 5.1%. The other regions with growth of over 4% were La Rioja, Madrid and Castilla La Mancha. Conversely, the regions with the lowest price increases were Galicia and the Basque Country, both with an increase of 0.4% to €1,146/m2 and €2,407/m2 respectively. Next on the lower side were Asturias, at 0.5%, Catalonia and Aragon, both at 1.2%.

On a provincial level, there have been notable year-on-year increases in Santa Cruz de Tenerife (+13.3%), Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (+10.3%) and Alicante (+10.1%). These are the only provinces to have witnessed growth above 10% on the same period last year. As in the previous report, the provinces with the most significant downward variations were Orense (-4.5%) and Ciudad Real (-3.2%). The provinces with the highest prices remain as Guipúzcoa, the Balearic Islands, Madrid, Málaga and Vizcaya, all maintaining values above € 2,000 /m². On the other hand, as in the first quarter of 2024, there are fifteen provinces with unit values below €1,000/m².

Increasingly generalised rental growth acceleration

Despite signs of a revival in the buy-to-let market, the rental market continues to be more stressed, pushing prices up at a faster and more widespread rate. However, peak increases have slowed slightly. Between April and June 2024, seven provinces experienced price increases of over 15% (three more than in the previous quarter). The largest increases have occurred in Cáceres (+19.2%), Valencia (+18.8%) and Segovia (+17.6%).

In absolute figures, Barcelona continues to be the province with the highest rents, at an average of € 22.11 /m²/month, followed by Madrid and the Balearic Islands, which this quarter have average rental values of € 18.97 and € 18.82 /m²/month. At the bottom of the ranking we see the only two provinces with rental values below € 6 /m²/month — Teruel (€ 5.42 /m²/month) and Jaén (€ 5.53 /m²/month).