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16 de January de 2024
This is the eleventh consecutive house price increase, although for the first time in this period the increase is less than 3%.
At Gesvalt, we have published the latest Housing Report for the fourth quarter of 2023. The study, carried out by the research department using Gesvalt’s own data, reflects a 2.1% increase in house prices compared to the same period in 2022.
This is the eleventh consecutive quarter to see house prices rise, although it is also the first in which the increase is less than 3%. This accentuates the slowdown in this trend, already observed in the previous quarter, when the increase was 3.5% year-on-year compared with 6.7% in the first quarter of the year.
In the same way, this quarter has recorded a 0.8% decrease in house prices compared to the previous quarter. This adds to the trend of the third quarter of the year, where prices fell by 1.1% compared to the second quarter. This situation reflects the slowdown in the purchase market and a stabilisation of prices after the upturn due to the advance in purchasing decisions caused by the rate hikes that have been repeated over the last few months. According to our experts, this growth figure should stabilise further in the first months of 2024, and this can already be seen in some areas.
As a result, the price of housing has stood at €1,538/m², which means that it is 28.2% below the all-time high recorded in the first quarter of 2008. This figure also means that the average property with a surface area of 90m² would currently cost €138,420 to purchase, compared to a cost of €135,630 last year.
For the second consecutive quarter, the increase in house prices has been generalised in all territories, with the sole exception of Navarre, where the price has remained stable with regards to the previous year. Likewise, increases have slowed to percentages below 2% in nine autonomous communities. For the ninth consecutive quarter, the Balearic Islands (at €2,780/m²) has once again become the Autonomous Community with the highest house prices in Spain. The Balearic Islands are just ahead of the Community of Madrid (at €2,504/m²) and the Basque Country (at €2,347/m²), being the only regions that exceed €2,000/ m². On the other side of the coin, the only autonomous communities that do not reach an average price per square metre of more than €1,000 are Castilla La Mancha (at €887/m²) and Extremadura (at €852/m²).
This quarter has once again reflected uneven growth in house prices in Spain. Three regions have experienced growth of over 5%, with the island autonomous communities once again leading the statistics. The Balearic Islands have experienced 6.5% growth, followed by 5.8% for the Canary Islands (increasing the figure to 1,618€/m²) and 5.3% for Murcia, which has placed its price at 1,092€/m². On the other hand, apart from Navarre, which has not experienced any year-on-year variation, three other regions have experienced increases of less than 1%: Asturias, Extremadura and La Rioja experienced an increase of 0.9%.
Unlike the price of sales and purchases, rental prices have not moderated their growth. In fact, the number of provinces where there have been contractions in rents has been reduced to one: Lérida (-3.9%), which already led this statistic the previous quarter. On the other hand, there are two provinces where growth has been above 15%: Segovia (+17.9%) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (+18.6%). Santa Cruz de Tenerife has exceeded 18% for a second consecutive quarter.
Analysing the absolute figures, Barcelona continues to lead the provincial ranking in terms of highest rents with an average of €20.56/m²/month, with Madrid (€16.88/m²/month) overtaking the Balearic Islands (€16.49/m²/month), now in second position for the first time in several quarters. At the bottom of the ranking are the only three provinces with rental units below €5.50/m²/month, these being Jaén (€4.89/m²/month), Teruel (€5.45/m²/month) and Cuenca (€5.49/m²/month).
Apart from house prices, other key indicators of the real estate market have also shown signs of stabilisation. During the first nine months of 2023, the number of building permits issued increased by 3.5% compared to that same period the previous year. This can be compared to the contraction experienced in final building certificates, which showed a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The regions with the highest number of certificates were Andalusia (24.3% of the national total), the Community of Madrid and Catalonia (both 15.4%). In terms of the volume of construction management approvals, Andalusia also led the way with 21.7% of the total, followed by the Community of Madrid (15.2%) and Catalonia (13.2%).
